Only 4-10% of traders pass prop firm evaluations on their first attempt. Our challenge simulator runs Monte Carlo simulations of your trading strategy to calculate your probability of passing, average days to completion, and risk of ruin — before you spend money on an evaluation.
Simulate your challenge with precision. Monte Carlo analysis, success probabilities, and personalized recommendations.
Leave empty for auto estimation
Configure your parameters and run the simulation to get a detailed analysis of your success chances.
Enter your prop firm parameters: account size, targets, drawdown rules.
Input your win rate, average gains/losses, and trading frequency.
Get your success probability, recommendations, and complete financial analysis.
Welcome to dealpropfirm.com, your trusted prop firm advisor. Our challenge simulator uses advanced Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate your success probabilities, optimize your strategy, and project your profitability.
Choose account size ($5K to $500K), challenge type and market. Enter the actual price for accurate cost analysis.
Adjust profit targets, drawdowns and periods. Switch between % and $ for more flexibility. Enable advanced rules if necessary.
Win rate, average win/loss, trades per day. The tool automatically validates and alerts on problematic parameters.
Visualize results with charts and metrics. Download the professional PDF or share your results. Use recommendations to refine your strategy.
Scientific Accuracy: Based on Monte Carlo, Kelly Criterion and binomial probabilities to surpass basic calculators.
Save Time and Money: Evaluate potential resets and avoid costly failures. Optimize before paying for the challenge.
Suitable for All Levels: Intuitive interface for beginners, advanced metrics for experts. Explanatory tooltips on each parameter.
100% Free and Secure: No data stored, everything happens client-side. Professional PDF export included.
Proven Results: Traders have reported a 20-30% increase in their success chances after optimization via our tool. Compatible with FTMO, MyForexFunds, E8 Funding and all major prop firms.
Ready to optimize your prop firm journey? Our Monte Carlo simulator guides you to maximize your success chances. Use it today to validate your strategy and pass your challenge with confidence.
Our challenge simulator runs 10,000 randomized simulations of your trading strategy against prop firm rules. Each simulation shuffles your win/loss sequence differently — because in real trading, the ORDER of wins and losses matters as much as the overall win rate.
A trader with 60% win rate might pass easily in one sequence (wins clustered at the start) but fail in another (losses clustered at the start, triggering drawdown). Monte Carlo simulation tests ALL possible sequences to give you a realistic probability of passing.
This is more reliable than backtesting because backtests show you ONE specific sequence of trades. Monte Carlo shows you EVERY possible outcome — including worst-case scenarios that backtests miss.
Pass Probability is the percentage of simulations where you reached the profit target without hitting the drawdown limit. Aim for >60% — anything below 50% means your strategy needs adjustment before you risk real money on an evaluation.
Average Days to Pass gives you a realistic timeline. If it shows 30+ days, consider whether the monthly subscription cost (for firms like Topstep) is worth it, or if a one-time payment firm (like Apex) would be more cost-effective.
Risk of Ruin shows how often your account hit the maximum drawdown limit across all simulations. If this exceeds 40%, reduce your risk per trade or improve your R:R ratio before attempting an evaluation.
Increase your win rate by 5%. Even a small improvement from 50% to 55% can dramatically increase your pass probability. Focus on better entry timing and avoiding low-quality setups.
Improve your R:R to at least 1:2. A 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio means your winners are twice as large as your losers. This compensates for a lower win rate and significantly improves pass probability.
Reduce risk per trade to 0.5-1%. Lower risk per trade means more trades before hitting drawdown, giving your edge more time to play out across a larger sample.
Trade more consistently. Trading 15-20 days/month instead of 5-10 gives your strategy more opportunities. Consistency is how edges compound over time.
Test different scenarios. Run the simulator with your current stats, then tweak one variable at a time. Find the minimum improvement needed to reach 60%+ pass rate.
Industry data suggests only 4-10% of traders pass their evaluation. The three main reasons for failure:
Over-trading: Taking 15+ trades per day when your edge only appears 3-5 times. More trades does not equal more profit — it equals more commissions and more emotional decisions.
Revenge trading: After a loss, immediately taking another trade to "make it back." This is the #1 account killer. The simulator shows why — a losing streak followed by revenge trades almost always triggers drawdown.
Incorrect position sizing: Trading too large relative to drawdown. Use our Risk Calculator to find the right size, then run it through this simulator to validate.
The simulator helps prevent all three — by showing you BEFORE you start whether your strategy has a realistic chance of passing. Don't waste $100+ on an evaluation without simulating first.
Everything about Monte Carlo simulations and optimizing your prop firm challenges
Our simulator runs 10,000 simulations of your trading strategy using your actual statistics (win rate, average gains/losses). Each simulation generates a possible path with random variations, allowing for a statistically reliable success probability calculation.
With 10,000 simulations, the margin of error is less than 1%. Accuracy mainly depends on your input data: use at least 100 historical trades for reliable statistics. The simulator integrates real prop firm rules to maximize realism.
1-Step: Faster but higher targets (8-10%). 2-Step: Standard with progressive phases (8% then 5%). 3-Step: More phases but lower targets per phase. The simulator calculates your chances for each type - choose the one with the best probability.
Challenge mode simulates passing the evaluation phases. Funded mode projects your performance over 12 months after getting the account, including splits (80/20 to 90/10), violation risks and net income. Use Challenge for evaluation, Funded to plan your income.
65%+ = Excellent strategy, take the challenge. 50-65% = Correct, optimize further. <50% = Risky, improve your strategy. The color code guides you: green (>65%), yellow (50-65%), red (<50%).
It's a drawdown that follows your profits. If activated at 5% on $100k and you reach $105k, your new floor is $99,750 ($105k - 5%). It protects the prop firm but complicates your management. The simulator calculates the impact on your chances.
The simulator shows that a 55%+ win rate with 1:2 RR gives >60% chances. To improve it: trade only the best setups, use multiple confirmations, avoid overtrading. The tool instantly tests different scenarios.
1-2% is optimal according to our simulations. The integrated calculator (optimalRiskPerTrade) customizes based on your profile. More than 3% drastically increases failure risk. In funded, reduce to 1% for longevity.
Enable trailing drawdown if your prop firm requires it. Consistency rule limits your daily gains (e.g.: max 30% of total profit per day). Weekend positions and news trading impact your opportunities. Each rule slightly reduces your chances.
Sharpe Ratio: Risk-adjusted return (>1 = good). Profit Factor: Gains/Losses (>1.5 = profitable). Max Consecutive: Extreme sequences to expect. Probability of Ruin: Risk of losing everything (<5% ideal).
Enter the challenge price ($50-1500). The simulator calculates: probable number of resets × cost, total investment, and ROI. Example: 50% chance = 2 average attempts = 2× initial price.
Yes! Forex (pips), Futures (ticks), Crypto (%), Stocks. Commissions vary: Futures $7/lot, Forex $3/lot. The simulator adjusts calculations. For futures, consider margins and variable leverage.
It's the median duration to reach the target with your stats. <30 days = Excellent. 30-60 = Normal. >60 = Slow, timeout risk. Based on your trading frequency and win rate.
It's your average gain per trade: (Win% × Average Gain) - (Loss% × Average Loss). Positive = winning strategy long term. The simulator automatically calculates it and alerts if negative.
More trades = more data = convergence toward expectancy. 5-10 trades/day accelerates but increases error risk. 2-5 trades/day is optimal for most. The simulator adjusts projections.
Yes! Adjust parameters: FTMO (10% profit, 10% DD), Apex (6% profit, 3% trailing), Topstep (6% profit, 3% daily loss). Compare probabilities to choose the best firm for your style.
The PDF includes all metrics, charts and recommendations. Use it to: document your strategy, compare scenarios, show projections to investors, track your progress.
Very! It prevents one lucky day from carrying the whole challenge. If activated at 30%, no day can exceed 30% of total profit. Reduces your chances by 5-10% but forces a stable approach.
Funded mode simulates 12 months with monthly payouts. Optimize for: consistency >60%, drawdown <5%, stable profit 5-10%/month. The tool projects your net income after splits.
First improve your strategy! Increase win rate (more confluence), improve RR (better entries), reduce frequency (quality > quantity). Re-simulate until >50%.
It's often the first breach! 5% daily on $100k = $5k max/day. The simulator calculates how many trades before limit. If <3, your risk is too high. Critical in scalping.
In Funded mode yes! 80/20 vs 90/10 changes your income by 12.5%. On $10k profit: $8k vs $9k for you. The simulator integrates splits for realistic projections.
Use minimum 100 historical trades. Verify on your broker/journal. The simulator detects inconsistencies (e.g.: 90% win rate with 1:1 RR unlikely) and alerts.
No, it complements it! Backtesting = validate strategy. Simulation = project results with variations. Use both: backtest first, then simulate with obtained stats.
Calculators give a fixed average. Our simulator tests 10,000 scenarios with realistic variations, detects extreme cases, integrates all prop firm rules. 100x more accurate.
If forbidden by the firm, enable restrictions. Impact: -20% opportunities approximately. The simulator adjusts your projections. Compensate with better selection of allowed trades.
>1.5 excellent, 1-1.5 good, <1 improve. It measures return/risk. A high Sharpe impresses firms and increases your chances of getting better conditions.
>2 = excellent, very profitable strategy. 1.5-2 = good, sustainable. 1-1.5 = borderline, optimize. <1 = losing. The simulator calculates it from your average gains/losses.
Yes! If trades/day >10 with win rate <60%, it alerts on overtrading risk. The 'required trades' and 'estimated days' metrics reveal if your frequency is realistic.
Start with small account ($25k), simulate success, then re-simulate with bigger account. ROI and probabilities guide you on when to scale. Generally after 3 profitable months.
No! It's a statistical projection based on probabilities. Markets change, your execution may vary. Use as a guide, not guarantee. Safety margin: -10% on projections.
Each month with updated stats, or after major change (strategy, market, firm rules). Compare evolutions. Continuous improvement = long term success.
Calculate safe position sizes for your prop firm account.
Calculate potential earnings from funded account profits.
Review of FTMO's 2-step evaluation process.
Explore 1-step and 2-step challenge options.
Proven strategies to pass your evaluation.
Master the mental game for challenge success.